Competitive Retail Market
Assessment
Arizona Retail Overview
Arizona ranked fourth in the
U.S. for developing new shopping centers in 2002. Although
there has been substantial retail expansion in Arizona over
the past several years, it has been exceeded by the strong
population growth in the state.
| State |
Number of New Centers |
| 1. |
California |
65 |
| 2. |
Florida |
63 |
| 3. |
Georgia |
45 |
| 4. |
Arizona |
44 |
| 5. |
Texas |
34 |
SOURCE:
NATIONIAL RESEARCH BUREAU SHOPPING CENTER DATABASE AND
STATISTICAL MODEL
Arizona ranks 5th in retail
square footage per capita and 5th in retail sales per
capita. The likely reason for Arizona’s prominent position
in these two categories is the collective buying power of
out-of-state visitors who don’t show up in the census
numbers.
| State |
Square Feet of Retail Space Per Capita |
| 1. |
Connecticut |
28.69 |
| 2. |
Delaware |
28.44 |
| 3. |
Florida |
27.67 |
| 4. |
Nevada |
26.19 |
| 5. |
Arizona |
25.71 |
| State
|
Retail Sales Per Capita |
| 1. |
Florida |
$7,098 |
| 2. |
Connecticut |
$6,983 |
| 3. |
Delaware |
$6,962 |
| 4. |
Colorado |
$6,450 |
| 5. |
Arizona |
$5,641 |
SOURCE:
NATIONIAL RESEARCH BUREAU SHOPPING CENTER DATABASE AND
STATISTICAL MODEL
Tucson Retail Analysis
Tucson, which acts as the hub
for the state’s southern region, is home to a population
that is growing at an estimated rate of 2.04% annually. The
metro area is forecast to have 918,000 residents in 2004.
Tucson’s consumer base continues to attract expanding
retailers such as Target, Home Depot, Office Max, and
Kohl’s. In addition, the employment base is expected to grow
by 2.1% in 2004.
The Tucson retail market has approximately 21.8 million
square feet of net rentable space and has remained
relatively stable for several years. The 2003 vacancy rate
of 6.3% is expected to dip to 6% in 2004.
Tucson had a banner year in 2003 with new construction
totaling 750,000 square feet. New construction is expected
to slow down in 2004 with a projected 400,000 square feet.
Retail rental rates are projected to increase by 2.8% to
$15.70 per square foot in 2004.
Tucson’s four major malls are:
1. Tucson Mall
2. El Con
3. Park Place
4. Foothills Mall
